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New all time highs is not a downtrend

April 30, 2019 / / No Comments

The S&P 500 index is back at new and fresh all time highs. Maybe this is not the best time to be writing a bullish post, it could backfire and we could see a 2015-16 bottom style retest. We have just seen an incredible 25% bounce in about 4 months, volatility is depressed and just about to burst. However let me remind you, I wrote a series of posts in October, starting with Winter coming?, warning you we could see a market crash, and then in Jan I flipped the side asking myself and my readers if Is it over?.

I was cautious along the way. The bounce could easily have been a bear market rally, but getting to fresh all time highs should reduce that likelihood, right? We were getting constructive signs along the way, let me just mention recent The most important market in the world right now post.

And while we’re back where we left it a good half a year ago, let’s discuss the current environment and why the party might not be over just yet.

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Tesla or TeslaQ?

April 26, 2019 / / No Comments

Probably the most controversial company in the stock market is Tesla. People either love it to such extent they almost worship it or they dislike it so much they think it will be de-listed from the Nasdaq exchange. It seems there’s no middle ground. It also seems no other stock divides people that much.

If I said I care it would be a huge overstatement. I don’t. Why would I have to? And as much I’d want to dive straight into your favorite ideological debates, that’s not the intention of this post. I want to warn you of a potential deeper correction that might happen in Tesla’s stock.

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Workshop feedback [video]

April 23, 2019 / / No Comments

Here is the feedback with a few opinions about the workshop I held last week. The video is recorded in Slovene language, but it’s subtitled in English.

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The most important market in the world right now

April 8, 2019 / / No Comments

Back in October last year the German stock index DAX was flashing warning signs for the stock market as a whole (see Winter coming?). We paid attention and whoever was alongside, was able to protect the damage that could have occurred otherwise. However in the beginning of this year we flipped the table and started (cautiously) accumulating stocks again (see Is it over?).

In this post I’d like to present why I think the DAX is again one of the most important markets in the world to watch right now.

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Biotech stocks poised for a breakout higher

April 3, 2019 / / No Comments

After the best first quarter of a year after quite some time, the rally from the low keeps on going. In March I was advising to get cautious if the market decides to start turning lower. Some might have taken that as too cautionary, however I must remind you we’re still in a cyclical correction and approaching upper trading range. To me playing defense is more important than playing offense. Don’t forget, in October last year we got out of longs and how important that was for preserving our emotional health and keeping an open mind in Q1 this year.

A good thing to see is that under the surface some nice bases are being built. This could provide the necessary fuel to extend this rally towards previous all time highs and later even beyond. This has been my thesis since beginning of the year (see Is it over?). One of the nicest bases being built is in biotech stocks. After a magnificent run between 2011 and 2015 when they more than quadrupled, they’ve been consolidating ever since.

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Is the bottom in for bitcoin?

April 2, 2019 / / No Comments

A few weeks ago I wrote a post Are cryptos trying to bottom? giving you heads up for what might happen. I invite all readers of this post to read that one as well, because now I just want to give you a brief update on bitcoin. There’s a great chance the bottom is in.

Let’s jump straight into it. Here is a daily chart of bitcoin with a potentially huge breakout of a bottoming formation.

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