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Dollar about to rally?

May 17, 2019 / / No Comments

The other day a guy tweeted to me that I couldn’t have been more wrong about one call. Yes, I do get them wrong, as much as 50% of them. If not more.

I often write about that, as I also say that for your (financial) well being is probably much more important to be able to manage risk effectively than to be able to make a higher number of calls right. But I get where the guy was coming from. In the world of instant gratification people feel the need to be right all the time and demand instant results. Go figure, ha? Is this also be a reason why so many traders converge to short term trading? I guess.

Anyways, let’s get to today’s topic. I was a dollar bear not so long ago, but the recent developments were making me change my stance to more and more neutral lately when I was becoming also more open to bullish scenarios. It’s ok if traders live in their idealistic world where they constantly feed their own biases, but this might not so profitable. To me it’s not hard to change my mind and admit my initial analysis was negated.

We saw a breakout attempt in the dollar a few weeks ago and it initially seemed it will be rejected. We can see this from the $DXY dollar index chart below, see circled candles.

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Don’t get caught up!

May 9, 2019 / / No Comments

I don’t mean by the markets, but by yourself. Regardless of your system, you will have losing trades. Some of the best traders have a win ratio of only about 50%, so their predictive system is not much better than a coin toss. However they have great risk management in place and they know when to back off. Everybody experiences a series of bad trades, but only the best know when it’s time for them to stop to minimize the damage that would have been incurred otherwise.

If I could count how many times I was stopped out and how many times I experienced one of those series… numerous. But what prevented me from going bust was exactly that, knowing when to stop.

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