Gotta love FTSE and DAX

Let me start this post with one of the most famous and important quotes by George Soros. He believes that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. 

I’m sure you can agree with him as we are in the market to make money, not to be right. But there are times when trading is hard, when it’s frustrating, when you just want to give up on trading. These are also times when one has to do everything to keep the hard-earned money intact and when you have to protect your emotional capital too.

But usually it’s not only you who is going through this kind of periods, it’s the whole market. And usually the biggest moves occur when everyone gives up on something. Can you see a connection here?

So why am I writing this? One of examples about giving up on something could be the stock index FTSE 100. Continue reading “Gotta love FTSE and DAX”

Can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start shining?

I will keep this blog post short. I do not want to get in the middle of the ‘one and only’ and the ‘shit’ coin arguments. No doubt about that Bitcoin had its moment, it was all over the place. People even started taking it as the only benchmark for your results, e.g. if your returns were lower than Bitcoin’s, then you suck, you are incompetent and what not. The arguments people were having, and still do, really got beyond good taste. But who am I to judge. Anyway, I don’t want to go there.

The main question I want to put out here is, can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start to/continue rising? And, can it also outperform Bitcoin (BTC)? Continue reading “Can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start shining?”

From tech to financials and energy?

One of the characteristics of a trending stock market is sector rotation. In a bull market not all sectors are necessarily trending higher and sectors are taking leadership in turns. This means that some are bound to outperform while the others are under performing. Sector rotation is a very important fuel of a bull market. So identifying sector rotation is crucial to be successful in the stock market. The phrase past performance is not an indication of future results is something that applies here very well!

We’ve seen increased volatility in the stock market this past week. I think that the reason could have been due to a rotation and not because a major top is forming just yet.  Continue reading “From tech to financials and energy?”

The bullish pound sterling?

Sometimes it’s really hard to write a post about a topic I wrote so many times before. I’ve just recently posted an update on the USD view focusing on the EURUSD pair. Even though I am writing about the pound sterling today it goes hand in hand with the bearish US dollar thesis because the cable is arguably the most important GBP pair.

Two weeks ago I tweeted “Anyone else thinks this is likely? $GBPUSD” suggesting that I am expecting a resolution higher in price. Continue reading “The bullish pound sterling?”

EVs to drive copper prices higher?

No, I don’t think we are there yet, I don’t think there is a recession imminent just yet as some are suggesting. On the contrary, there are some great things happening right now, some trends are just starting. For instance, electric vehicles sector is just about to take off and bullish oil could just speed up the whole process.

And as you may know, copper is a key element of every electric component because it’s a great conductor. If we assume that a recession is not imminent and among other electrification EV sector is just starting to take off then it is fair to say that demand for copper should pick up too, right? Continue reading “EVs to drive copper prices higher?”

What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?

I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.

As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid.  Continue reading “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”

Time for Ethereum’s turn?

In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.

Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.

From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Continue reading “Time for Ethereum’s turn?”