… if I use the words of Mark Yusko and make them a bit more general. Not that I don’t believe in bitcoin, but I think the whole asset class is here to stay and disrupt. Possibly big time!
While a lot of people are saying bitcoin is a scam, one should buy puts on every crypto, and while there are many ICO frauds, I am not so sure about the negative outcome for the asset class as a whole. I don’t want to go over all the reasons why, but I think it has a lot to do with the same reasons as why the stocks are in a bullish trend, e.g. money is super cheap, we could be in the beginning of a secular bull trend (see my post from Sep17, Why are you so pessimistic?), etc.
But there is another one which could push the prices higher. Continue reading “Cryptos are big, really big!”
I guess it’s needless to say that I am a commodities bull. After all, even if you haven’t followed my blog regularly, you can tell this from my last post. This doesn’t mean that the price of commodities will only go up. There will be short-term cycles with corrections, even very quick ones, to shake the excessive excitement. Similar to what we see in cryptos today. This is just normal market behavior.
While gold didn’t get much of an appreciation lately, it had a very decent year. But I think it was only a beginning. I think gold could easily double or triple in the months to come. Continue reading “The shiny metal and its miners”
Here it is, my first post in 2018. I won’t give you NY resolutions or something. Let me first give you a quick overview of my past posts to gain a perspective before we dive into today’s topic. I think this is relevant because some of these trends started in 2017 and they could pick up steam in 2018.
The theme that could be very big this year is a big rally in commodities in my opinion. I’ve been writing a lot about commodities and commodity related products/assets in the past. When oil was at $45 and everyone was screaming it’s going lower I was taking the other side. It’s above $60 now. When gold was at $1300 I was suggesting it could drop by $60-80 at which point it could be a great level to pick it up as a long-term hold. It did precisely that and is sitting at $1320 now. Not to mention bullish copper and some other ones. Even though the above calls went great not everything did. Cocoa (and other softs) showed some signs of life during the second half of ’17, but were very quickly brought back to reality; I wouldn’t call it a day just yet.
US dollar is very important to the whole commodities story. While I had second thoughts about my bearish thesis as I see some head winds at the moment the dollar continued its slide lower. If my assumption is correct and the dollar continues what is doing, this would be a great tell and an even bigger tail wind for commodities. Continue reading “The year of commodities?”
Let me start this post with one of the most famous and important quotes by George Soros. He believes that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
I’m sure you can agree with him as we are in the market to make money, not to be right. But there are times when trading is hard, when it’s frustrating, when you just want to give up on trading. These are also times when one has to do everything to keep the hard-earned money intact and when you have to protect your emotional capital too.
But usually it’s not only you who is going through this kind of periods, it’s the whole market. And usually the biggest moves occur when everyone gives up on something. Can you see a connection here?
So why am I writing this? One of examples about giving up on something could be the stock index FTSE 100. Continue reading “Gotta love FTSE and DAX”
I will keep this blog post short. I do not want to get in the middle of the ‘one and only’ and the ‘shit’ coin arguments. No doubt about that Bitcoin had its moment, it was all over the place. People even started taking it as the only benchmark for your results, e.g. if your returns were lower than Bitcoin’s, then you suck, you are incompetent and what not. The arguments people were having, and still do, really got beyond good taste. But who am I to judge. Anyway, I don’t want to go there.
The main question I want to put out here is, can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start to/continue rising? And, can it also outperform Bitcoin (BTC)? Continue reading “Can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start shining?”
One of the characteristics of a trending stock market is sector rotation. In a bull market not all sectors are necessarily trending higher and sectors are taking leadership in turns. This means that some are bound to outperform while the others are under performing. Sector rotation is a very important fuel of a bull market. So identifying sector rotation is crucial to be successful in the stock market. The phrase past performance is not an indication of future results is something that applies here very well!
We’ve seen increased volatility in the stock market this past week. I think that the reason could have been due to a rotation and not because a major top is forming just yet. Continue reading “From tech to financials and energy?”
Sometimes it’s really hard to write a post about a topic I wrote so many times before. I’ve just recently posted an update on the USD view focusing on the EURUSD pair. Even though I am writing about the pound sterling today it goes hand in hand with the bearish US dollar thesis because the cable is arguably the most important GBP pair.
Two weeks ago I tweeted “Anyone else thinks this is likely? $GBPUSD” suggesting that I am expecting a resolution higher in price. Continue reading “The bullish pound sterling?”