Bond breakdown?

… and inflation is coming.

I could end the post with this. For some this could be the news, for others maybe not so much. I wrote a post last year But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up? Like then also now I was chatting to a friend recently and he was very surprised when I said I’m expecting inflation to pick up.

Most people think we’ll stay in this disinflationary and low rates environment forever. But we’re getting inflation signs everywhere. For example, the housing market is strong in most cities (in Europe) and it seems it could stay that way for a while. There are some other big infrastructure projects under way. Food prices are slowly but steadily rising. Huge pressures on salaries starting to emerge. And I believe oil prices could rise to $100 in the near future too (see here)!

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Expecting a move in Bitcoin

Earlier this year I wrote a post about cryptos saying that they’re big, really big. I still believe that, technology has a good chance to disrupt in many fields. Even though the timing of that post wasn’t the best, my long-term views didn’t change much when it comes to bitcoin. We can see that more and more very important companies are getting into the space, they’re investing not only in bitcoin but the underlying technology as well.

But what does this mean for the price action? Sentiment has changed a lot. Greed is not present anymore. Neither is fear of missing out. But there are still a lot of terrible projects that have been funded with ICOs and are still behaving very irrationally. I’ve been tweeting about this quite a lot and I’ve been expecting ether to under perform bitcoin. Exactly this has happened so far.

Regardless, I’m getting some signs bitcoin might be getting closer to the end of the current bear market, but this doesn’t mean the pain has to end immediately. There’s still a very serious risk we could see yet another leg lower. Read More

Watch Alibaba for clues in emerging markets

There are a lot of debates whether the current stock market is the longest one in history or not. I am in the group of people who thinks that’s not the case. I think this market had a lot of corrections since the bottom in 2009 or since 2013 which was the start of a new secular bull market in my opinion.

Even if you focus only on the US stocks one could argue that the market was in a correction during the 2015-16 period. But for the most of the world markets did not even have a chance to take its former all time highs. Regardless of your or my opinions we have to respect what the market is doing and act accordingly.

And the fact is that most stock markets are under-performing the US market. A nice example of a lagging market as a class are merging markets or $EEM ETF.

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Affordable mistakes

We all make mistakes in our day to day life. I make them all the time. I bet you do too. For the most part, we don’t pay any special attention to them. But sometimes, when they get a bit bigger, we become very aware of them. We repeat some over time, and for most we’ve learnt over the years what we can and cannot do to minimize the effects.

I bet you’ve heard countless times what you should and shouldn’t do to avoid mistakes and how important they can be in not resulting in ruin. For example, in trading, people advise you shouldn’t risk more than x% of your capital per trade. Quite often they over generalize. They give this advice to both young folks, just starting their careers, and older guys and girls, already counting down the hours to retirement.

Why is this? Why do we think a piece of advice is good for some circumstances? Are they really equally effective in all circumstances? Read More

Why I keep being constructive on oil

Summer is slowly but steadily nearing its end. It was a great opportunity for me to take a break and do some stuff I didn’t have time for during the year. I was still watching the markets, but trading much less frequently than usually. One has to keep in mind that the markets will always be here and so will the opportunities. When I was less experienced I thought that if I miss an opportunity it’s over, I will miss the train to the riches… so perhaps like the most of us I had the fear of missing out. Once you really understand that, sure we swing for the big win, the market keeps throwing opportunities at you, you get much more relaxed.

But what I wanted to say is that when you do that, when you step back a bit, you might get a fresh look or a new perspective on things. You open up to the new ideas. And this is the big win. Everyone needs to do it now and then.

Anyway, let me get to oil now. Since last summer I had been constructive on oil and energy prices in general. Read More

S&P 500: 3050?

My target for the S&P 500 has been 3000 for the past year and a half at least. I’ve kept saying that and I still think we’re heading there. I also wouldn’t exclude a melt up rather than an imminent stock market crash as some are suggesting. Yes, it might be coming, but in my view we’re not there just yet.  Read More

When even the bears get bullish

The dollar or its index DXY rallied by around 8% in the past few months after it lost 15% since the beginning of 2017. In post ‘Macro overview’ I wrote we might get this tradable counter trend rally and it feels to me it could be a good time to flip the card again. This time in the direction of the primary trend, which is becoming bearish for the dollar again. Read More

Bull case for uranium

My Twitter followers probably already saw me tweeting about uranium for a while now. I’ve been saying that it could bottom here, where the main instrument or vehicle of choice is Global X Uranium ETF $URA. It’s been bottoming for the past 3 years and it feels the process could be ending soon. Read More

Silver: The next big thing?

Silver hasn’t move anywhere in the past 2 years, it’s been in a range and this range is getting smaller and smaller. It’s just nuts, it’s dead money and if you’re invested in silver then you’re probably going crazy looking at other people making money trading stocks, oil, base metals, etc. While you’re getting nothing. The opportunity cost here is just huge!

Well there still might be some hope left. Read More