What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?

I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.

As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid.  Continue reading “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”

Dollar to catch a bid?

Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Continue reading “Dollar to catch a bid?”

Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!

Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.

Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Continue reading “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”