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Bumpy road ahead

February 2, 2020 / / No Comments

Markets fluctuate, they go up and they go down too. Our job is to make the most out of these fluctuations by going with, and not fighting, the tape.

Even though you could have pointed out many reasons why one should have been expecting a correction, or even a crash, we’ve been bullish for the most part of last year up until now. Looking back, that was the only right decision to be made.

However, we think now could be the time for becoming cautious going forward. We’re not becoming ‘the end of the world’ bearish yet, but the ride could become bumpier.

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Sectors on the watch to short

October 19, 2018 / / No Comments

I’ve been bullish stocks for the past 2 odd years. But it looks to me a bigger correction in the US stocks could be upon us. Emerging markets have been under performing this whole year and there are no signs of a reversal yet (see Watch Alibaba for clues in emerging markets). Then the German DAX is just confirming the move down is very likely (see Winter coming?). And it looks gold could be starting to catch some bid (see Rotation to gold and miners?).

We saw a few failed breakouts higher in the US indices recently. I was writing about the Dow Jones Industrial Average, looking for a continuation higher. But it failed and that failed break higher, by the way a similar one happened in S&P 500, is causing concerns for bulls and all these developments are by no means constructive for stock bulls. 

So its up to everyone to decide what you want to do. You can either stubbornly hold to your longs, you can be defensive and go into cash or you can even short some indices, sectors and even individual stocks. But which ones and under what conditions?

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Rotation to gold and miners?

October 11, 2018 / / No Comments

It looks we could see a correction in the US stocks too. We’ve been seeing it in other markets already. I still think this could only be a correction within a secular bull market and I don’t want to be calling for a 2008 style crisis yet however it can always evolve into something bigger.

There is an interesting rotation happening right now though. Gold has been a mess in the past months and even years. Many were expecting it would start trending higher.  I was one of them for some time but I’ve put that thesis aside until now. I’m starting to see reasons for joining the party! What if this correction in the US stocks will ignite it?

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Silver: The next big thing?

May 31, 2018 / / No Comments

Silver hasn’t move anywhere in the past 2 years, it’s been in a range and this range is getting smaller and smaller. It’s just nuts, it’s dead money and if you’re invested in silver then you’re probably going crazy looking at other people making money trading stocks, oil, base metals, etc. While you’re getting nothing. The opportunity cost here is just huge!

Well there still might be some hope left. Read More

The shiny metal and its miners

January 17, 2018 / / No Comments

I guess it’s needless to say that I am a commodities bull. After all, even if you haven’t followed my blog regularly, you can tell this from my last post. This doesn’t mean that the price of commodities will only go up. There will be short-term cycles with corrections, even very quick ones, to shake the excessive excitement. Similar to what we see in cryptos today. This is just normal market behavior.

While gold didn’t get much of an appreciation lately, it had a very decent year. But I think it was only a beginning. I think gold could easily double or triple in the months to come. Read More

The year of commodities?

January 8, 2018 / / No Comments

Here it is, my first post in 2018. I won’t give you NY resolutions or something. Let me first give you a quick overview of my past posts to gain a perspective before we dive into today’s topic. I think this is relevant because some of these trends started in 2017 and they could pick up steam in 2018.

The theme that could be very big this year is a big rally in commodities in my opinion. I’ve been writing a lot about commodities and commodity related products/assets in the past. When oil was at $45 and everyone was screaming it’s going lower I was taking the other side. It’s above $60 now. When gold was at $1300 I was suggesting it could drop by $60-80 at which point it could be a great level to pick it up as a long-term hold. It did precisely that and is sitting at $1320 now. Not to mention bullish copper and some other ones. Even though the above calls went great not everything did. Cocoa (and other softs) showed some signs of life during the second half of ’17, but were very quickly brought back to reality; I wouldn’t call it a day just yet.

US dollar is very important to the whole commodities story. While I had second thoughts about my bearish thesis as I see some head winds at the moment the dollar continued its slide lower. If my assumption is correct and the dollar continues what is doing, this would be a great tell and an even bigger tail wind for commodities. Read More

Gold in danger of a long liquidation!

September 20, 2017 / / 2 Comments

By now you probably already know that I am a long-term gold bull and that I believe gold is forming a major bottom which could push the price much higher in the future. This year the price has steadily been moving higher as expected and suggested many times, but is now in danger of a long liquidation! Read More

Gold, can you use this opportunity?

August 2, 2017 / / No Comments

More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?

In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Read More

Gold might not be ready to rally just yet

June 16, 2017 / / 7 Comments

Last weak gold was trying to break its famous multi-month long resistance trendline (see below) and many gold bulls/bugs were getting excited. Over a long term I think gold is a great store of value, but in short term I wouldn’t be surprised if it sells off from the current price level.  Read More

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