My target for the S&P 500 has been 3000 for the past year and a half at least. I’ve kept saying that and I still think we’re heading there. I also wouldn’t exclude a melt up rather than an imminent stock market crash as some are suggesting. Yes, it might be coming, but in my view we’re not there just yet. Read More
I guess it’s needless to say that I am a commodities bull. After all, even if you haven’t followed my blog regularly, you can tell this from my last post. This doesn’t mean that the price of commodities will only go up. There will be short-term cycles with corrections, even very quick ones, to shake the excessive excitement. Similar to what we see in cryptos today. This is just normal market behavior.
While gold didn’t get much of an appreciation lately, it had a very decent year. But I think it was only a beginning. I think gold could easily double or triple in the months to come. Read More
One of the characteristics of a trending stock market is sector rotation. In a bull market not all sectors are necessarily trending higher and sectors are taking leadership in turns. This means that some are bound to outperform while the others are under performing. Sector rotation is a very important fuel of a bull market. So identifying sector rotation is crucial to be successful in the stock market. The phrase past performance is not an indication of future results is something that applies here very well!
We’ve seen increased volatility in the stock market this past week. I think that the reason could have been due to a rotation and not because a major top is forming just yet. Read More
There is so much pessimism in the market right now and it’s so hard to escape from it. It feels that if one is not bearish, then he must be missing something or he is just a blind bull. I know, there are problems in the world. But was there a time when everything was rosy?
Anyway, today I would like to write a post around a tweet of mine that brought quite a lot of attention. I wrote about the same topic on June the 3rd  and now I would like to add few thoughts to challenge you by asking what if we are in the first stage of a multi decade long bull market, similar to the ones that started in early 50s or 80s? Read More
I didn’t write about the stock market for a while now and there is a good reason for that, there is nothing new – the market is still in a bull trend. So far there is little evidence to suggest this bull run is ending, but on the other hand I’m sure you’ve heard about the quote ‘risk happens fast’. So everyone is probably wondering what to do going forward.
In this post let me show you the pattern of the years that end with 7 as well as why this market is so similar to the market in 1995. Read More
This week SPX closed at all time highs and it broke above it’s 3 months trading range. New all time highs is a characteristic we see in bull trends. Now the question is, can we see this move to be extended or rejected. In this post I would like to show you constructive signs based on DJTA, equally weighted SPX and XLF ETF. Read More
Mentioned products: ED, SPX, EEM, EWZ, EXY,
This weekly overview I’d like to dedicate to Eurodollar bond futures and emerging markets. Few weeks ago I wrote that bonds could move higher (the opposite is true for rates); at that time I wrote about TLT ETF which is probably one of the most general bond products. Read More
Mentioned products: SPX, EuroStoxx, DAX30, CAC40, IBEX35, MIB40, GREK, EURGBP
I would like to dedicate this week’s weekly overview to Europe and French election because it’s quite important event for global political and economic situation and therefore for financial markets as well.
My question this week is, can Le Pen win and what are markets telling us? Read More
Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NDX, SX5E, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CL, RBS
It’s so hard to write something really exciting in the equity indices space right now. Sure, I think we can expect another move higher some time, but are we first on a course to fill those nasty gaps with some choppy action? There are few proofs which could back this thesis. Read More