From yield curve inversion to bond squeeze?

Yesterday we got the first US yield curve (3 and 5 year) inversion since 2007. Usually a recession follows within two years but I don’t want to scare you with that. Firstly, it doesn’t have to happen immediately and secondly, if you read any of my posts lately you know that getting defensive is not something we should fight against and in that case you’re well prepared for a case of a downturn.

The point of this post is to point out that we could see a flight to safety, that is into treasury bonds. A lot of people are expecting inflation and interest rates to rise over time, meaning bond prices to fall, including me (see Bond breakdown?). But it looks too many got ahead of themselves so it would be irresponsible to ignore the intermediate term risks in the market. Let me present what I think could happen.

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Bond breakdown?

… and inflation is coming.

I could end the post with this. For some this could be the news, for others maybe not so much. I wrote a post last year But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up? Like then also now I was chatting to a friend recently and he was very surprised when I said I’m expecting inflation to pick up.

Most people think we’ll stay in this disinflationary and low rates environment forever. But we’re getting inflation signs everywhere. For example, the housing market is strong in most cities (in Europe) and it seems it could stay that way for a while. There are some other big infrastructure projects under way. Food prices are slowly but steadily rising. Huge pressures on salaries starting to emerge. And I believe oil prices could rise to $100 in the near future too (see here)!

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Sell bonds and buy micro-caps

I would like to start with my tweet I posted 10 days ago.

So far this has been a great call. Before continuing, please read my past post about gold here, where I discuss that gold price is likely to trade lower.

Now, back to bonds. Read More