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What to expect next?

February 5, 2019 / / No Comments

I’ve been very quiet in the past month. The reason is that I was intensively working on a new product I will announce in the near future. Sometimes you just got to lock yourself in a room if you want to get things done. Focus is so underestimated thing nowadays. It’s just impossible to deliver a high quality product if your mind is all over the place.

Anyway, more about that when time is right. I want to discuss the market with you. Since my post Is it over? the stocks rallied a lot and most have already forgotten we’ve seen a mini crash in Q4. However, the problem is that, while I think there’s a good chance the bottom is in, the current action does not look like a Typical bottom. So, what to expect next?

The market is behaving very constructive as of late and it’s not far fetched to say the S&P 500 could continue going higher to above of its 200d or up to somewhere 2,800 level – the purple area.

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Is it over?

January 7, 2019 / / No Comments

I’m not one of the guys who like to scare others with a repeat of 2008 or 1929 crisis. I don’t think that’s very useful. In my mind this is one of the reasons why the working class stay under invested throughout the bull runs and usually buy the top. They’re too scared to buy until the peak euphoria comes when is already too late.

However, one must not be complacent. We need to respect risk, we need to respect the market, we need to use stop losses. This is why they were invented. And this is why in Q4 I was warning you we could see a correction in the market. If you didn’t pay attention you could be down as much as 40% if you were invested in Apple or even more, if you were invested in some of the other stocks.

Could we see a 2008/1929 style crisis? Absolutely, but I don’t think this is the highest likelihood event. I still believe we’re in a secular bull market and that this is a cyclical correction only, but I’m staying open minded to any outcome. Like I’m opened to a scenario that the worst is over and that the market will start a process of forming higher highs and higher lows.

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