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FX markets about to get interesting again!

August 13, 2019 / / No Comments

I haven’t been focusing on currency markets much in the past year or so and there’s a good reason for it, volatility. Rolling 30 day standard deviation is sitting at 15 years lows, in some pairs even lower. This is very well reflected by charts where we can see multi-year consolidations or sideways trends, however you want to put it. I don’t know about you, but I like trending markets, and most currency pairs have not been trending in years.

It feels, however, times are about to change. Volatility could increase soon thus making FX markets interesting again and when volatility does increase everyone will go on about currency wars or some other thing to justify their narrative.

Let me start with showing you a volatility chart of individual pairs going back 15 years and continue with an overview of some majors.

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When even the bears get bullish

June 25, 2018 / / 1 Comment

The dollar or its index DXY rallied by around 8% in the past few months after it lost 15% since the beginning of 2017. In post ‘Macro overview’ I wrote we might get this tradable counter trend rally and it feels to me it could be a good time to flip the card again. This time in the direction of the primary trend, which is becoming bearish for the dollar again. Read More

Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so

August 20, 2017 / / 5 Comments

It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.

In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible.  Read More

Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!

July 23, 2017 / / 6 Comments

Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.

Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Read More

The king dollar set to disappoint?

June 28, 2017 / / 3 Comments

I published a series of shorter posts and tweets about the dollar in the past, but didn’t write a more extensive one recently. I was thinking to write a longer post for a while now, but a) just didn’t find time to do it and b) thought we are set for a correction after the selloff in the last half a year or so, so I thought there is no rush with presenting a bearish case. Anyway.. now I think we might not even get a correction yet in this it seems to be the first stage of a major long-term dollar bear market. Read More

USDCAD pointing to crude oil rally

June 10, 2017 / / 4 Comments

Had you asked me a few months ago what do I think where oil might go, being quite a vocal bear, I’d say that the only way is down. Even when WTI was breaking above 52.00 USD/bbl level and hedge funds have built a record long position, I was very pessimistic about that and as expected the move was short-lived. But recently I became less bearish. In this post let me present what I see right now.. Read More

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