I bet you found yourself being a bit early on the market on a few occasions. This can be very risky, because there’s a thin line between being early and being wrong. Having a sound risk management one can prevent losing (too much) money, however one must remember that there are two dimensions of a good trade, time and direction. If either of them is wrong, you risk losing money! Thus I don’t trade on my macro views until the tape confirms them.
I wrote a post Euro to repeat 2017 move? three months ago. Clearly I was early, but now it looks US dollar is finally breaking down, thus confirming euro and other currencies could appreciate versus the dollar.
Let me start with a monthly chart of Trade Weighted US Dollar Index of major currencies by FRED. The broad index looks more bullish too be fair, but it does not offer that much history, so below I will show you an equally weighted index against emerging market currencies too.Read More