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This Is Not a Drill

March 12, 2020 / / No Comments

The intent of this post is not to make any additional panic. I’ve been on the defense since the first half of February, and I hope you were too after posts Bonds, buy Bonds and Bumpy road ahead were published.

But things are getting serious, the virus is affecting the economy and the markets greatly as you have probably already noticed. I’m not an expert on viruses, but the markets are telling us this situation is not to be taken lightly. As I tweeted a few times in the past couple of weeks I prefer to “panic” sooner rather than later. Majority does the opposite, rather than prevent they’re forced to deal with the consequences.

As of writing the S&P 500 stock index is down more than 8% just today, or down more than 25% from the peak. This is on record the fastest 20% correction measured from the peak, including the 1929 meltdown.

We might be due for a snap back, a face ripper, rally. This may also be a historic buying opportunity, but as things stand, I wouldn’t exclude more downside further down the road, or, in best case scenario, a period of very high volatility with a range bound trading. There’s just an overwhelming supply waiting at higher prices.

I’ve been seeing so many “buy the dip” calls during this selloff. Everybody is so eager to buy the bottom because they’re sure the market will be higher a few weeks, months or years from now. But what if we don’t see a repeat of 2019? What if the EU and the US get into a complete lockdown? What if the selling is not over yet? What if the exchanges are forced to shut down for a prolonged period of time? Could you handle that?

However you might want to turn this around, this is a period when cash is king.

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What does this surge in Bitcoin price mean?

October 27, 2019 / / No Comments

We’ve seen a very strong move in Bitcoin this Friday. The price moved up by good 16 and a half percent measured from the opening to the closing price. However, the move continued into Saturday and in less than a day, measured from low to high, rallied by almost 40 percent. Let’s try to put this into perspective and answer a couple of questions. For example we are interested how does the magnitude of such a move rank since 2010 and what does this mean for future expectations.

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Risk on

July 3, 2019 / / No Comments

When reading financial headlines one could easily think the markets are selling off, we’re in a in severe downtrend where panic is just about to hit the main street. It’s really hard to find anything positive, and even if we get to read something that could sound a bit optimistic it’s accompanied by a word of caution, caution ahead of the next recession. Everyone’s obsessed about it.

I don’t know about you guys, but I like to stay open minded and being optimistic is a viable option too. It helps spending some time with family and friends during the Summer, and having the Adriatic sea at our fingertips is just a bonus.

Since the beginning of the year we’ve been bullish the stocks (Is it over?), bitcoin (Are cryptos trying to bottom?) as well as gold (Will gold bugs finally have their day?). It’s a ‘risk on’ environment, you know. However, is that about to change?

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Is the bottom in for bitcoin?

April 2, 2019 / / No Comments

A few weeks ago I wrote a post Are cryptos trying to bottom? giving you heads up for what might happen. I invite all readers of this post to read that one as well, because now I just want to give you a brief update on bitcoin. There’s a great chance the bottom is in.

Let’s jump straight into it. Here is a daily chart of bitcoin with a potentially huge breakout of a bottoming formation.

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Are cryptos trying to bottom?

March 6, 2019 / / No Comments

Cryptos have been hit hard in the past 15 months or so. Most of them fell in price by 90% or more. This was needed, there was just too much junk, too much shitty projects and scams. The main question is, are we cleared of this now or not yet? And can the developments and improvements, that kept a strong pace, turn the trend around?

Last summer I was warning my readers that if Bitcoin falls below $6,000 you should get out as the space could shrink yet again. I know that some people like picking bottoms, there are strategies that make people buy down trends because they think they’ll miss a rally otherwise. I greet that, not because it would be a great strategy, but because we can find buyers when we need to get out.

If you follow me regularly you know by know that bottoms and tops are always a process, never an event. Don’t believe anyone who’s trying to convince you otherwise. They’ll most likely gain something off of you.

Anyway, cryptos are in the middle of a process that could end up being the bottoming process.

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Expecting a move in Bitcoin

September 11, 2018 / / No Comments

Earlier this year I wrote a post about cryptos saying that they’re big, really big. I still believe that, technology has a good chance to disrupt in many fields. Even though the timing of that post wasn’t the best, my long-term views didn’t change much when it comes to bitcoin. We can see that more and more very important companies are getting into the space, they’re investing not only in bitcoin but the underlying technology as well.

But what does this mean for the price action? Sentiment has changed a lot. Greed is not present anymore. Neither is fear of missing out. But there are still a lot of terrible projects that have been funded with ICOs and are still behaving very irrationally. I’ve been tweeting about this quite a lot and I’ve been expecting ether to under perform bitcoin. Exactly this has happened so far.

Regardless, I’m getting some signs bitcoin might be getting closer to the end of the current bear market, but this doesn’t mean the pain has to end immediately. There’s still a very serious risk we could see yet another leg lower. Read More

Macro overview

May 6, 2018 / / No Comments

I would like to present you my current macro views. The markets are at very interesting points and offer very good opportunities at the moment.

The format of this post will be slightly different than usual, I will post my tweets because I think that the combination offers a better reading experience.

I would like to start with the major stock market indices. There is so much interest in this market thus everyone has an opinion on it. I’ve been seeing so many bearish calls lately, such an increase in the negative sentiment,.. Sure, they might be right and as stated many times before, I don’t mind if the markets doubles or goes to zero from here. All I care is to participate from the right side. Read More

Cryptos are big, really big!

January 28, 2018 / / 3 Comments

… if I use the words of Mark Yusko and make them a bit more general. Not that I don’t believe in bitcoin, but I think the whole asset class is here to stay and disrupt. Possibly big time!

While a lot of people are saying bitcoin is a scam, one should buy puts on every crypto, and while there are many ICO frauds, I am not so sure about the negative outcome for the asset class as a whole. I don’t want to go over all the reasons why, but I think it has a lot to do with the same reasons as why the stocks are in a bullish trend, e.g. money is super cheap, we could be in the beginning of a secular bull trend (see my post from Sep17, Why are you so pessimistic?), etc.

But there is another one which could push the prices higher. Read More

Can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start shining?

December 13, 2017 / / No Comments

I will keep this blog post short. I do not want to get in the middle of the ‘one and only’ and the ‘shit’ coin arguments. No doubt about that Bitcoin had its moment, it was all over the place. People even started taking it as the only benchmark for your results, e.g. if your returns were lower than Bitcoin’s, then you suck, you are incompetent and what not. The arguments people were having, and still do, really got beyond good taste. But who am I to judge. Anyway, I don’t want to go there.

The main question I want to put out here is, can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start to/continue rising? And, can it also outperform Bitcoin (BTC)? Read More

Time for Ethereum’s turn?

November 8, 2017 / / 2 Comments

In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.

Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.

From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Read More

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