Silver: The next big thing?

Silver hasn’t move anywhere in the past 2 years, it’s been in a range and this range is getting smaller and smaller. It’s just nuts, it’s dead money and if you’re invested in silver then you’re probably going crazy looking at other people making money trading stocks, oil, base metals, etc. While you’re getting nothing. The opportunity cost here is just huge!

Well there still might be some hope left. Continue reading “Silver: The next big thing?”

Macro overview

I would like to present you my current macro views. The markets are at very interesting points and offer very good opportunities at the moment.

The format of this post will be slightly different than usual, I will post my tweets because I think that the combination offers a better reading experience.

I would like to start with the major stock market indices. There is so much interest in this market thus everyone has an opinion on it. I’ve been seeing so many bearish calls lately, such an increase in the negative sentiment,.. Sure, they might be right and as stated many times before, I don’t mind if the markets doubles or goes to zero from here. All I care is to participate from the right side. Continue reading “Macro overview”

Cryptos are big, really big!

… if I use the words of Mark Yusko and make them a bit more general. Not that I don’t believe in bitcoin, but I think the whole asset class is here to stay and disrupt. Possibly big time!

While a lot of people are saying bitcoin is a scam, one should buy puts on every crypto, and while there are many ICO frauds, I am not so sure about the negative outcome for the asset class as a whole. I don’t want to go over all the reasons why, but I think it has a lot to do with the same reasons as why the stocks are in a bullish trend, e.g. money is super cheap, we could be in the beginning of a secular bull trend (see my post from Sep17, Why are you so pessimistic?), etc.

But there is another one which could push the prices higher. Continue reading “Cryptos are big, really big!”

The shiny metal and its miners

I guess it’s needless to say that I am a commodities bull. After all, even if you haven’t followed my blog regularly, you can tell this from my last post. This doesn’t mean that the price of commodities will only go up. There will be short-term cycles with corrections, even very quick ones, to shake the excessive excitement. Similar to what we see in cryptos today. This is just normal market behavior.

While gold didn’t get much of an appreciation lately, it had a very decent year. But I think it was only a beginning. I think gold could easily double or triple in the months to come. Continue reading “The shiny metal and its miners”

The year of commodities?

Here it is, my first post in 2018. I won’t give you NY resolutions or something. Let me first give you a quick overview of my past posts to gain a perspective before we dive into today’s topic. I think this is relevant because some of these trends started in 2017 and they could pick up steam in 2018.

The theme that could be very big this year is a big rally in commodities in my opinion. I’ve been writing a lot about commodities and commodity related products/assets in the past. When oil was at $45 and everyone was screaming it’s going lower I was taking the other side. It’s above $60 now. When gold was at $1300 I was suggesting it could drop by $60-80 at which point it could be a great level to pick it up as a long-term hold. It did precisely that and is sitting at $1320 now. Not to mention bullish copper and some other ones. Even though the above calls went great not everything did. Cocoa (and other softs) showed some signs of life during the second half of ’17, but were very quickly brought back to reality; I wouldn’t call it a day just yet.

US dollar is very important to the whole commodities story. While I had second thoughts about my bearish thesis as I see some head winds at the moment the dollar continued its slide lower. If my assumption is correct and the dollar continues what is doing, this would be a great tell and an even bigger tail wind for commodities. Continue reading “The year of commodities?”