EVs to drive copper prices higher?

No, I don’t think we are there yet, I don’t think there is a recession imminent just yet as some are suggesting. On the contrary, there are some great things happening right now, some trends are just starting. For instance, electric vehicles sector is just about to take off and bullish oil could just speed up the whole process.

And as you may know, copper is a key element of every electric component because it’s a great conductor. If we assume that a recession is not imminent and among other electrification EV sector is just starting to take off then it is fair to say that demand for copper should pick up too, right? Continue reading “EVs to drive copper prices higher?”

What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?

I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.

As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid.  Continue reading “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”

Time for Ethereum’s turn?

In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.

Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.

From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Continue reading “Time for Ethereum’s turn?”

WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?

My holidays are over and it was nice to see that things that I’ve been writing about are mainly playing out as expected. One of them is also oil. To me it seems it can go a lot higher! There are so many bears because of an over rated shale potential or because so many people think that demand just can’t pick up. I disagree with their arguments, not only that, I take the opposite side! Also, there are bulls but who are not really bullish, rather neutral, as they think oil can’t go much higher.

I wrote a lot about my bullish thesis so many times in the last couple of months. If I focus only on the last two, in the first one I was writing about my $60 WTI price expectations and in the second I wrote an update on the 1st one. I really wouldn’t like to repeat myself, so you are very kindly invited to give them a read. Continue reading “WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?”

Can technicals get any better than this?

I am enjoying my time on holidays now and I wasn’t planning to post much in the next two weeks. But the trading idea I will present in this post very briefly is one of the things that just can’t go unnoticed.

Currency pair CADCHF is one of the products that respected technicals so beautifully it’s hard to describe it with words so please take a look at the next chart. Continue reading “Can technicals get any better than this?”

Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!

We are in a strong equity bull market and the stronger the market gets, the more angry the bears become. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Demark sequential indicator posted by the bears who tried calling the top over the last year or two. It’s just silly.

Every time the market makes new all time highs the top pickers come out of the caves and literally start throwing money away. Sure, one of the future all time highs will become the top, but do you have enough money to survive until we get there?

Maybe my post is marking the top, maybe not, time will tell. No one knows, not me nor you. But I would say, based on all the evidence, we still have quite some upside left. There are more and more markets participating in this bullish trend, which is a sign of strength, not weakness. Continue reading “Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!”

Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!

Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.

What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.

I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.

Continue reading “Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!”