Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so

It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.

In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible.  Continue reading “Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so”

A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?

I didn’t write about the stock market for a while now and there is a good reason for that, there is nothing new – the market is still in a bull trend. So far there is little evidence to suggest this bull run is ending, but on the other hand I’m sure you’ve heard about the quote ‘risk happens fast’. So everyone is probably wondering what to do going forward.

In this post let me show you the pattern of the years that end with 7 as well as why this market is so similar to the market in 1995. Continue reading “A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?”

Gold, can you use this opportunity?

More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?

In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Continue reading “Gold, can you use this opportunity?”

Unloved soft commodities

I would like to present you a very interesting setup in soft commodities I am observing for a while now. I wrote about COT positioning already, so a frequent reader should be familiar with the term and how to read it. This time there is an extreme imbalance in hedge fund and producer positioning in sugar, cocoa, coffee and orange juice while the price of each sits at very low levels. Continue reading “Unloved soft commodities”

Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!

Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.

Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Continue reading “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”

SunContract: blockchain in energy

I am happy to announce that I became one of the SunContract advisors; more specifically I became an advisor for energy trading related topics. Thus I would like to remind you to read my post about European energies here. I would also like to share a SunContract’s post below which was originally published on their blog.

Please check SunContract’s website and if you like the project you are very welcome to contribute; token sale ends in 10 days.

About the SunContract project

The SunContract is a Slovenian start-up project that wants to stimulate innovation in the rigid energy sector by utilizing blockchain technology. A decentralized platform will enable direct trading with electricity between producers and consumers, while transparency and efficiency will be guaranteed through the Ethereum blockchain. Continue reading “SunContract: blockchain in energy”

Bitcoin watch out below

Bitcoin was a great story so far. There was a proper euphoria with comments like “bitcoin price can only go up” and similar, expectations were high and everyone thought trading cryptos or doing some kind of business in the field is like a walk in the park. It seems that this is slowly but surely ending, at least for now; it was sweet while lasted.

When everyone I know, who by the way are everything but experts in financial markets, talk about it, is time to get worried. So let me start with showing you my tweet from 3 weeks ago and continue with a tweet from this Friday. Continue reading “Bitcoin watch out below”