Watch Alibaba for clues in emerging markets

There are a lot of debates whether the current stock market is the longest one in history or not. I am in the group of people who thinks that’s not the case. I think this market had a lot of corrections since the bottom in 2009 or since 2013 which was the start of a new secular bull market in my opinion.

Even if you focus only on the US stocks one could argue that the market was in a correction during the 2015-16 period. But for the most of the world markets did not even have a chance to take its former all time highs. Regardless of your or my opinions we have to respect what the market is doing and act accordingly.

And the fact is that most stock markets are under-performing the US market. A nice example of a lagging market as a class are merging markets or $EEM ETF.

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S&P 500: 3050?

My target for the S&P 500 has been 3000 for the past year and a half at least. I’ve kept saying that and I still think we’re heading there. I also wouldn’t exclude a melt up rather than an imminent stock market crash as some are suggesting. Yes, it might be coming, but in my view we’re not there just yet.  Read More

Macro overview

I would like to present you my current macro views. The markets are at very interesting points and offer very good opportunities at the moment.

The format of this post will be slightly different than usual, I will post my tweets because I think that the combination offers a better reading experience.

I would like to start with the major stock market indices. There is so much interest in this market thus everyone has an opinion on it. I’ve been seeing so many bearish calls lately, such an increase in the negative sentiment,.. Sure, they might be right and as stated many times before, I don’t mind if the markets doubles or goes to zero from here. All I care is to participate from the right side. Read More

Gotta love FTSE and DAX

Let me start this post with one of the most famous and important quotes by George Soros. He believes that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. 

I’m sure you can agree with him as we are in the market to make money, not to be right. But there are times when trading is hard, when it’s frustrating, when you just want to give up on trading. These are also times when one has to do everything to keep the hard-earned money intact and when you have to protect your emotional capital too.

But usually it’s not only you who is going through this kind of periods, it’s the whole market. And usually the biggest moves occur when everyone gives up on something. Can you see a connection here?

So why am I writing this? One of examples about giving up on something could be the stock index FTSE 100. Read More

From tech to financials and energy?

One of the characteristics of a trending stock market is sector rotation. In a bull market not all sectors are necessarily trending higher and sectors are taking leadership in turns. This means that some are bound to outperform while the others are under performing. Sector rotation is a very important fuel of a bull market. So identifying sector rotation is crucial to be successful in the stock market. The phrase past performance is not an indication of future results is something that applies here very well!

We’ve seen increased volatility in the stock market this past week. I think that the reason could have been due to a rotation and not because a major top is forming just yet.  Read More

Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!

We are in a strong equity bull market and the stronger the market gets, the more angry the bears become. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Demark sequential indicator posted by the bears who tried calling the top over the last year or two. It’s just silly.

Every time the market makes new all time highs the top pickers come out of the caves and literally start throwing money away. Sure, one of the future all time highs will become the top, but do you have enough money to survive until we get there?

Maybe my post is marking the top, maybe not, time will tell. No one knows, not me nor you. But I would say, based on all the evidence, we still have quite some upside left. There are more and more markets participating in this bullish trend, which is a sign of strength, not weakness. Read More

But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up?

I would like to start with my tweet from earlier today.

Are they? Or is just the cycle long enough so that the people forgot that bonds might also fall and interest rates rise over time?

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Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?

I’ve expressed my bullish bias in the stock market with my past few posts. Please read in my last post my observations that’s so interesting to see the eagerness to be bearish and pessimistic and with calling the market top. So I think there is no need to bore you with this again and let’s go straight into the charts.

My main question today is, can DAX30 rip higher into everyone’s face in the next couple of months? Take a look at the weekly chart of DAX. Read More

Why are you so pessimistic?

There is so much pessimism in the market right now and it’s so hard to escape from it. It feels that if one is not bearish, then he must be missing something or he is just a blind bull. I know, there are problems in the world. But was there a time when everything was rosy?

Anyway, today I would like to write a post around a tweet of mine that brought quite a lot of attention. I wrote about the same topic on June the 3rd [1] and now I would like to add few thoughts to challenge you by asking what if we are in the first stage of a multi decade long bull market, similar to the ones that started in early 50s or 80s? Read More