The moment of truth for FAANNG stocks

FAANNG stocks or Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia and Google have been out performing the market for a good while. They’ve also been a on the radar of practically every perma bear in the market. Hard to know if they have shorted it before, but they were calling the top for a very long time. Unsuccessfully.

There are two dimensions that set a good trade, direction and time. They might get to claim to get the direction right, but their timing was totally off. I think now is the time to pay very close attention to the group as it could start turning lower!

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Sectors on the watch to short

I’ve been bullish stocks for the past 2 odd years. But it looks to me a bigger correction in the US stocks could be upon us. Emerging markets have been under performing this whole year and there are no signs of a reversal yet (see Watch Alibaba for clues in emerging markets). Then the German DAX is just confirming the move down is very likely (see Winter coming?). And it looks gold could be starting to catch some bid (see Rotation to gold and miners?).

We saw a few failed breakouts higher in the US indices recently. I was writing about the Dow Jones Industrial Average, looking for a continuation higher. But it failed and that failed break higher, by the way a similar one happened in S&P 500, is causing concerns for bulls and all these developments are by no means constructive for stock bulls. 

So its up to everyone to decide what you want to do. You can either stubbornly hold to your longs, you can be defensive and go into cash or you can even short some indices, sectors and even individual stocks. But which ones and under what conditions?

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Winter coming?

My DJIA post marked a (short term) top for US equities. It happens. As said the other day, it’s a low probability call. However things change fast and if you read my post carefully you’ll notice I also entertained a possibility that German DAX could be forming a major market top and added that if the price of DJIA gets below 26,400 we want to be defensive.

And man, being defensive was the right call. Or short of course one could say. Stock indices were crushed yesterday with Nasdaq 100 down almost 4%. Other indices were no exception to this selloff.  So, my main question is, is this the start of a something bigger?

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Dow Jones Industrial Average: stocks are going up!

So many guys are trying to call the market top in an up trending market. Sure, any swing top could be the top, but calling the one is a low probability bet for obvious reasons. Usually major tops are a process and they need time to develop. For example one could argue that German DAX is currently forming a major market top. We’ll see if that will be the case. But there is no sign of a major market top in the US stock indices yet.

And DJIA closing at a new all time highs, surpassing this January’s high, is anything but bearish. Breadth indicators are also not telling a bearish story. And what if there is a bigger risk of a melt up, rather than an imminent crash?

I wouldn’t exclude this case and neither should you. Sure, stock market is in the later stages of a bull market in my opinion, but does this mean it should crash? If it does, I won’t be stubbornly holding to my holdings. And before we see any serious deterioration it’s hard to join the doom and gloom side. When that happens I will be more than happy to short it.

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Energy to start outperforming?

I can’t help it but I need to write yet another energy post. It’s hard to be bearish energy in general if oil continues to trend higher (see here) and if US natural gas is just breaking out of a major bottom (see here).

But I promise I’ll try to make this post shorter. I’ve already written about the futures market so let me focus on equities now. My main question is, could $XLE energy ETF start outperforming broad based S&P 500 index?  

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Watch Alibaba for clues in emerging markets

There are a lot of debates whether the current stock market is the longest one in history or not. I am in the group of people who thinks that’s not the case. I think this market had a lot of corrections since the bottom in 2009 or since 2013 which was the start of a new secular bull market in my opinion.

Even if you focus only on the US stocks one could argue that the market was in a correction during the 2015-16 period. But for the most of the world markets did not even have a chance to take its former all time highs. Regardless of your or my opinions we have to respect what the market is doing and act accordingly.

And the fact is that most stock markets are under-performing the US market. A nice example of a lagging market as a class are merging markets or $EEM ETF.

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S&P 500: 3050?

My target for the S&P 500 has been 3000 for the past year and a half at least. I’ve kept saying that and I still think we’re heading there. I also wouldn’t exclude a melt up rather than an imminent stock market crash as some are suggesting. Yes, it might be coming, but in my view we’re not there just yet.  Read More

Macro overview

I would like to present you my current macro views. The markets are at very interesting points and offer very good opportunities at the moment.

The format of this post will be slightly different than usual, I will post my tweets because I think that the combination offers a better reading experience.

I would like to start with the major stock market indices. There is so much interest in this market thus everyone has an opinion on it. I’ve been seeing so many bearish calls lately, such an increase in the negative sentiment,.. Sure, they might be right and as stated many times before, I don’t mind if the markets doubles or goes to zero from here. All I care is to participate from the right side. Read More

Gotta love FTSE and DAX

Let me start this post with one of the most famous and important quotes by George Soros. He believes that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. 

I’m sure you can agree with him as we are in the market to make money, not to be right. But there are times when trading is hard, when it’s frustrating, when you just want to give up on trading. These are also times when one has to do everything to keep the hard-earned money intact and when you have to protect your emotional capital too.

But usually it’s not only you who is going through this kind of periods, it’s the whole market. And usually the biggest moves occur when everyone gives up on something. Can you see a connection here?

So why am I writing this? One of examples about giving up on something could be the stock index FTSE 100. Read More