Most are not. Well, except buy and hold crowd. And sentiment is reflecting that. Many sentiment measures and indicators are, with some variations, showing that people are sceptical about future expectations at best, where majority is very concerned and some are expecting a 2008 crisis style repeat.
I was talking to a director of a company the other day. Their business is closely linked to German industry, so he’s feeling the numbers coming from there. What fascinated me most was not his outlook, but the conviction he has. He’s absolutely sure we’re going down, there’s no doubt about it. He was pounding the table the markets will crash and not one single person could prove him wrong. Man, the conviction level was mind blowing.
If the meeting’s circumstances would be different, I’d invite him to take, under some conditions, an opposite side of a trade with me.
It’s hard to deny the current weak economic data coming from different parts of the world. There’s no doubt we are/were seeing an economic slowdown. However I’m trying to be open minded and am wondering if this was it, if data is about to start improving contrary to the popular belief that it’s going to get drastically worse.