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Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!

July 23, 2017 / / 6 Comments

Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.

Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Read More

Bitcoin watch out below

July 15, 2017 / / No Comments

Bitcoin was a great story so far. There was a proper euphoria with comments like “bitcoin price can only go up” and similar, expectations were high and everyone thought trading cryptos or doing some kind of business in the field is like a walk in the park. It seems that this is slowly but surely ending, at least for now; it was sweet while lasted.

When everyone I know, who by the way are everything but experts in financial markets, talk about it, is time to get worried. So let me start with showing you my tweet from 3 weeks ago and continue with a tweet from this Friday. Read More

European energies

July 10, 2017 / / 5 Comments

Probably you’ve seen this chart a few times in the last couple of weeks saying that S&P500 is expensive compared to commodities. depgq4xwaaefu7vWell, don’t go and just buy a random commodity… for example, as I wrote, I am expecting gold price to fall. But on the other hand it seems European energies could rally and let me present what I see here.  Read More

The king dollar set to disappoint?

June 28, 2017 / / 3 Comments

I published a series of shorter posts and tweets about the dollar in the past, but didn’t write a more extensive one recently. I was thinking to write a longer post for a while now, but a) just didn’t find time to do it and b) thought we are set for a correction after the selloff in the last half a year or so, so I thought there is no rush with presenting a bearish case. Anyway.. now I think we might not even get a correction yet in this it seems to be the first stage of a major long-term dollar bear market. Read More

Few trade ideas

June 18, 2017 / / No Comments

Let me highlight few trade ideas I tweeted recently. So let me share them with you with reposting them here…  Read More

Gold might not be ready to rally just yet

June 16, 2017 / / 7 Comments

Last weak gold was trying to break its famous multi-month long resistance trendline (see below) and many gold bulls/bugs were getting excited. Over a long term I think gold is a great store of value, but in short term I wouldn’t be surprised if it sells off from the current price level.  Read More

Buy platinum and sell palladium?

May 16, 2017 / / No Comments

I will start with posting my two tweets this Sunday.

So what is current positioning in these two precious metals and why should be care? Read More

Real test for US dollar bulls!

April 25, 2017 / / 4 Comments

In the latest weekly overview I wrote EURUSD is a hot mess. Price action this week confirms the ‘hot mess’ theme. EURUSD contributes the biggest weight in the US dollar index and thus we could say DXY is a hot mess as well.

DXY is trading at an important technical level right now and now is the time for bulls to show if they have any power left to move the price higher!

Read More