A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?

I didn’t write about the stock market for a while now and there is a good reason for that, there is nothing new – the market is still in a bull trend. So far there is little evidence to suggest this bull run is ending, but on the other hand I’m sure you’ve heard about the quote ‘risk happens fast’. So everyone is probably wondering what to do going forward.

In this post let me show you the pattern of the years that end with 7 as well as why this market is so similar to the market in 1995. Read More

European energies

Probably you’ve seen this chart a few times in the last couple of weeks saying that S&P500 is expensive compared to commodities. depgq4xwaaefu7vWell, don’t go and just buy a random commodity… for example, as I wrote, I am expecting gold price to fall. But on the other hand it seems European energies could rally and let me present what I see here.  Read More

Sell bonds and buy micro-caps

I would like to start with my tweet I posted 10 days ago.

So far this has been a great call. Before continuing, please read my past post about gold here, where I discuss that gold price is likely to trade lower.

Now, back to bonds. Read More

USDCAD pointing to crude oil rally

Had you asked me a few months ago what do I think where oil might go, being quite a vocal bear, I’d say that the only way is down. Even when WTI was breaking above 52.00 USD/bbl level and hedge funds have built a record long position, I was very pessimistic about that and as expected the move was short-lived. But recently I became less bearish. In this post let me present what I see right now.. Read More

S&P 500 approaching an important resistance… Is this rally about to end or continue?

S&P 500 rallied and finished strong this week as anticipated. I wrote about the necessary help from broader market participation in last week’s post, and we got it. But what next? Let me present you arguments for and against this rally and what to look for going forward. Read More

S&P 500 needs help from broader market participation

This week SPX closed at all time highs and it broke above it’s 3 months trading range. New all time highs is a characteristic we see in bull trends. Now the question is, can we see this move to be extended or rejected. In this post I would like to show you constructive signs based on DJTA, equally weighted SPX and XLF ETF. Read More

Brazil’s plunge and what can we learn from it?

This week I would like to write about Brazil and it’s stock market. Most of you are probably aware, that the market opened with a nasty gap down of around -17% on Thursday the 18th of May. I was long EWZ, Brazilian ETF and of course I was down on this position that day. I decided to close my position with no hesitation. Let me write about this position and what can one learn from it.  Read More

Eurodollars & emerging markets to rip higher?

Mentioned products: ED, SPX, EEM, EWZ, EXY,

This weekly overview I’d like to dedicate to Eurodollar bond futures and emerging markets. Few weeks ago I wrote that bonds could move higher (the opposite is true for rates); at that time I wrote about TLT ETF which is probably one of the most general bond products.  Read More

Can Le Pen win & could European equities start outperforming?

Mentioned products: SPX, EuroStoxx, DAX30, CAC40, IBEX35, MIB40, GREK, EURGBP

I would like to dedicate this week’s weekly overview to Europe and French election because it’s quite important event for global political and economic situation and therefore for financial markets as well.

My question this week is, can Le Pen win and what are markets telling us? Read More

Weekly overview 30.04.2017

Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NDX, SX5E, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CL, RBS

It’s so hard to write something really exciting in the equity indices space right now. Sure, I think we can expect another move higher some time, but are we first on a course to fill those nasty gaps with some choppy action? There are few proofs which could back this thesis. Read More

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