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Continue reading →: Typical bottom
People love picking tops and bottoms. I understand where this comes from, some just have the urge to prove they know more, they know better. While this might be a viable strategy, one needs to know where the market is currently and if a low has a chance of becoming…
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Continue reading →: Dollar breaking down
I bet you found yourself being a bit early on the market on a few occasions. This can be very risky, because there’s a thin line between being early and being wrong. Having a sound risk management one can prevent losing (too much) money, however one must remember that there…
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Continue reading →: Is it over?
I’m not one of the guys who like to scare others with a repeat of 2008 or 1929 crisis. I don’t think that’s very useful. In my mind this is one of the reasons why the working class stay under invested throughout the bull runs and usually buy the top.…
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Continue reading →: Commit to a process and stick to it
The start of a new year can mean a new beginning for some. Hope, resolutions, more hope. But a few are willing to do the right thing, this mostly means ditching hope and replacing it with work, solutions and processes. The market doesn’t care what we hope for, a retirement…
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Continue reading →: Banks are rolling lower!
Since early October I’ve given so many warnings about the stocks market it’s almost making me sick already. No, not because the market might correct or even crash, but because I must be starting to get annoying to all of you. The intention of my warnings is to make you…
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Continue reading →: Do NOT underestimate the risk
I am not one of those guys who were warning you of a stock market crash for the past few years. They totally missed the bull run we had an opportunity to enjoy since the second part of 2016. But some of them will still claim they successfully called the…
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Continue reading →: From yield curve inversion to bond squeeze?
Yesterday we got the first US yield curve (3 and 5 year) inversion since 2007. Usually a recession follows within two years but I don’t want to scare you with that. Firstly, it doesn’t have to happen immediately and secondly, if you read any of my posts lately you know…
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Continue reading →: Keeping a perspective
After G20 meeting when stock indices are gapping up it’s very easy to lose sight. It’s as easy to get excited as it had been easy getting depressed two weeks ago. In this kind of environment one needs to keep perspective. Often the best way is to take a deep…
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Continue reading →: Shorting German auto industry
German DAX30 stock index has been one of the weakest so far this year. I’ve been arguing for the past couple of months that if the price of DAX is falling it’s hard to be bullish on stocks as an asset class (see Winter coming?). Many people are refusing to…
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Continue reading →: Stock market update
Hi guys. I’ve been away for a month, not because of the markets, but because I was travelling and had a very limited internet access. And as I came back I see that not much has changed. Liquidity is getting sucked out of the markets, strength is being sold into…
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