Weekly overview 26.03.2017

Mentioned products: DXY, EURUSD, SPY, RUT, NI225, CL, TLT,  KR, VIE, GBPCAD

Note: This post was originally posted on my Slovenian version Trgovanje.eu on 26.03.2017.

After 109 trading days we got a 1% decline in the S&P 500 index and media presented it as the world is crashing down – what to expect then when we really get a market crash? We are slowly approaching the time when the market will inevitably peak, but are we there yet? While I still expect (as I tweeted a while ago) the S&P to reach 2450-2500 level before a major turn, and btw the yield curve is also not suggesting the top has been formed just yet, one has to be very cautious because of many reasons I discussed in the past. Let’s see what was happening this week and what to expect in the following.

I didn’t talk much about the US dollar recently. I am still a long term bull, but this doesn’t mean the dollar can’t go lower from here. In fact, I’d prefer the dollar to weaken because the strong dollar has very negative implications on world economy, but the market doesn’t care what my preference is. 🙂  Anyway, it looks DXY is trying to complete a H&S pattern, which would imply that the EURUSD could go at least towards 1.13 price level should 1.0825-1.0850 level be broken. 2017-03-26_eurusd

Russell 2000 index saw quite a big selloff on Tuesday (like other indices), but after that recovered a bit and managed to stay in the narrow trading range. The top callers expect it will break lower and start a new bear market, but on the other hand we are still in an uptrend. Until we see a break in either wat it’s better to stay on the sidelines.2017-03-26_rut

This nice formation could give us a nice indication where the whole US market might go. In a very similar formation we can find Nikkei 225.2017-03-26_ni225

For the ones who want to play the equities market from the short side, Kroger is forming a massive H&S pattern.2017-03-26_kr

But on the other hand Veolia Environment is bouncing of a good support. 2017-03-26_vie

Can the trendline in WTI oil hold? Still a long term bear, but wouldn’t be surprised if we see a short term bounce higher. 2017-03-26_cl

While TLT Treasury Bonds seemed they want to go lower I still expect (as discussed few weeks ago) it will go much higher from now. First indication would be a break above red trend line and final confirmation would be a close above 123 level.2017-03-26_tlt

In the currency world GBPCAD seems to be forming a long term bottom. 2017-03-26_gbpcad

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