Weekly overview 02.04.2017

Mentioned products: EURUSD, GBPUSD, RUT, MIB, SX50, TSLA, LL, ATI, SPD, ITV, ENGI, VIE, CL, TLT, LKD

Last week I talked about potential correction in the dollar, where target in EURUSD would be at around 1.13 if the pair would move above 1.0850 level. It briefly did go higher, but was quickly rejected. This action suggests we could see further choppyness in the following weeks – I don’t believe the dollar will start moving much higher much faster just yet even though I am maintaing bullish long term bias. Before we can move much higher in the dollar, EURUSD has to clear 1.05 level. Let’s take a look at the chart below. 2017-04-01_eurusd

But on the other hand, is GBPUSD forming a bottom? Strong dollar would most likely negate this, but range bound dollar would probably allow it. Decisive close above blue trendline would suggest we could move higher.2017-04-02_gbpusd

As discussed in the last overview a potentially bigger correction in equities was negated with this week’s price action. Not many things are suggesting we might be topping soon, while range bound action is still possible! Let me show you few very constructive proofs for equity market.

The first one is US stock index Russell 2000, which bounced from it’s consolidation support mentioned last week. At the moment Russell 2000 is very indicative for the US market if you ask me. Can we break higher? 2017-04-01_rut

Also, Italian MIB stock index, discussed in [1], is staying one of the strongest markets and also EU Stocks 50 index is trying to break above it’s multi year trendline resistance level.2017-04-01_stxe

Quite a few shares broke to all time high levels, one example is Amazon. But let me again show you this major base formation in Tesla, which price action was quite strong and is suggesting we might break higher. Break would be a very bullish signal for equities if you ask me.2017-04-01_tsla

Formation in Lumber Liquidation holdings is cerainly not bearish as well! 2017-04-01_ll

Allegheny Technologies successfuly retested 200d MA (btw, which is also 2008 low), breaking point and filled the gap. Looks we could move higher now.. 2017-04-01_ati

There were also few very important moves in the European equities. I also tweeted them during the week, so don’t forget to follow #chartingtrades. Sports Direct International broke 200d MA and it’s triangle resistance. After that we saw a very aggressive move higher. I suggested this might happen more than a month ago [2].2017-04-01_spd

The next one is ITV plc, which also broke above it’s very tight consolidation range and it’s targetting £2.80.2017-04-01_itv

We also saw very nice move higher in $VIE as suggested last week and it looks European utilities are bottoming as well and want to go higher after few depressing years, example of a nice cup & handle and 200d MA break higher is in Engie (formerly known as GDF Suez).2017-04-01_engi

Last week we saw a nice bounce in crude’s price. WTI can reach 52.00 USD/bbl price level and it will be interesting to see where we go from there on. 20 year treasury bonds (e.g. TLT) are still consolidating and I expect we will move much higher from here. 2017-04-01_tlt

Is Coffee Robusta forming a top? Break below the trendline would suggest so.2017-04-02_lkd

#chartingtrades

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