Let me start this post with one of the most famous and important quotes by George Soros. He believes that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
I’m sure you can agree with him as we are in the market to make money, not to be right. But there are times when trading is hard, when it’s frustrating, when you just want to give up on trading. These are also times when one has to do everything to keep the hard-earned money intact and when you have to protect your emotional capital too.
But usually it’s not only you who is going through this kind of periods, it’s the whole market. And usually the biggest moves occur when everyone gives up on something. Can you see a connection here?
So why am I writing this? One of examples about giving up on something could be the stock index FTSE 100. It hasn’t moved anywhere for past 20 years. And even when it broke out of the 20 year range, it didn’t pick up any momentum. It again started creating yet another, tighter, range. Let me show you this on a weekly chart.
You know that I am a stock market bull at the moment, so I hope it’s not needed to repeat again where I think this might resolve.
Another one on my list which I think could rip higher is DAX. I wrote a post about it already 3 months ago. Back then, at 12,300 level, I wrote that I am expecting a move towards 13,600 with a possible extension to 14,700. It missed 13,600 by only a few points, now corrected a bit, was a frustrating trade for more than a month now, but I think the market is getting ready to continue higher towards 14,500-14,700. Let me show you a weekly chart.
Let me conclude with few words about the US dollar. I was very openly expressing my bullish stance about the euro and the pound, which is bearish the dollar. There is growing evidence that I might have been wrong, but I am still waiting for a confirmation. I may write a blog post about it once we get it. In any case it’s still early and if I’ll have to revise my thesis nothing will be lost or missed. But
— Domen Butala (@DomenButala) December 15, 2017