My target for the S&P 500 has been 3000 for the past year and a half at least. I’ve kept saying that and I still think we’re heading there. I also wouldn’t exclude a melt up rather than an imminent stock market crash as some are suggesting. Yes, it might be coming, but in my view we’re not there just yet.
I hope you don’t mind me being in a proper Summer holiday mood. This is the reason for posting and tweeting less. This is also the reason for this post being quite short.
I know that you might say ‘but what about trade wars and tariffs etc?’, not to mention the yield curve or some other metric. This is one thing to consider. But what if the impacts will be shown in the data later and current news are just serving to feed the bears and to shake some bulls out? What if the current environment is here just to fool us all, meaning that stock market will keep moving higher making us think trade war implications are minimal or not important and then, not before, just then will the market turn lower?
As I tweeted the other day,
What if, what just if this tariff news will serve as just a shakeout?
— Domen Butala (@DomenButala) July 11, 2018
Anyway, I think that while SPX stays above 2780-2800 level there is a very good chance we’ll see prices at 3000-3100 in the following months. Perhaps before year-end or even sooner. Let’s see…
— Domen Butala (@DomenButala) July 12, 2018