WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?

My holidays are over and it was nice to see that things that I’ve been writing about are mainly playing out as expected. One of them is also oil. To me it seems it can go a lot higher! There are so many bears because of an over rated shale potential or because so many people think that demand just can’t pick up. I disagree with their arguments, not only that, I take the opposite side! Also, there are bulls but who are not really bullish, rather neutral, as they think oil can’t go much higher.

I wrote a lot about my bullish thesis so many times in the last couple of months. If I focus only on the last two, in the first one I was writing about my $60 WTI price expectations and in the second I wrote an update on the 1st one. I really wouldn’t like to repeat myself, so you are very kindly invited to give them a read. Continue reading “WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?”

Can technicals get any better than this?

I am enjoying my time on holidays now and I wasn’t planning to post much in the next two weeks. But the trading idea I will present in this post very briefly is one of the things that just can’t go unnoticed.

Currency pair CADCHF is one of the products that respected technicals so beautifully it’s hard to describe it with words so please take a look at the next chart. Continue reading “Can technicals get any better than this?”

Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!

We are in a strong equity bull market and the stronger the market gets, the more angry the bears become. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Demark sequential indicator posted by the bears who tried calling the top over the last year or two. It’s just silly.

Every time the market makes new all time highs the top pickers come out of the caves and literally start throwing money away. Sure, one of the future all time highs will become the top, but do you have enough money to survive until we get there?

Maybe my post is marking the top, maybe not, time will tell. No one knows, not me nor you. But I would say, based on all the evidence, we still have quite some upside left. There are more and more markets participating in this bullish trend, which is a sign of strength, not weakness. Continue reading “Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!”

Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!

Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.

What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.

I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.

Continue reading “Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!”

Dollar to catch a bid?

Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Continue reading “Dollar to catch a bid?”

Oil breaking higher through important trendlines

There is more and more evidence that energies might rally in the end of this year and so many people could be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Not only retail community but also professionals are saying oil has to go down. We can see something similar in COT positioning as well. This reminds me of gold bugs, but in energy we have energy bears and their narratives. It’s fascinating!

I wrote a post about oil a month ago. I advise you to read it (see here) before you continue with this post to gain a perspective. Therefore I won’t go into everything again but rather expose the technical picture. Continue reading “Oil breaking higher through important trendlines”