I’ve expressed my bullish bias in the stock market with my past few posts. Please read in my last post my observations that’s so interesting to see the eagerness to be bearish and pessimistic and with calling the market top. So I think there is no need to bore you with this again and let’s go straight into the charts.
My main question today is, can DAX30 rip higher into everyone’s face in the next couple of months? Take a look at the weekly chart of DAX. Continue reading “Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?”
There is so much pessimism in the market right now and it’s so hard to escape from it. It feels that if one is not bearish, then he must be missing something or he is just a blind bull. I know, there are problems in the world. But was there a time when everything was rosy?
Anyway, today I would like to write a post around a tweet of mine that brought quite a lot of attention. I wrote about the same topic on June the 3rd  and now I would like to add few thoughts to challenge you by asking what if we are in the first stage of a multi decade long bull market, similar to the ones that started in early 50s or 80s? Continue reading “Why are you so pessimistic?”
It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.
In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible. Continue reading “Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so”
I didn’t write about the stock market for a while now and there is a good reason for that, there is nothing new – the market is still in a bull trend. So far there is little evidence to suggest this bull run is ending, but on the other hand I’m sure you’ve heard about the quote ‘risk happens fast’. So everyone is probably wondering what to do going forward.
In this post let me show you the pattern of the years that end with 7 as well as why this market is so similar to the market in 1995. Continue reading “A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?”
More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?
In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Continue reading “Gold, can you use this opportunity?”
I would like to present you a very interesting setup in soft commodities I am observing for a while now. I wrote about COT positioning already, so a frequent reader should be familiar with the term and how to read it. This time there is an extreme imbalance in hedge fund and producer positioning in sugar, cocoa, coffee and orange juice while the price of each sits at very low levels. Continue reading “Unloved soft commodities”
Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.
Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Continue reading “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”