So many guys are trying to call the market top in an up trending market. Sure, any swing top could be the top, but calling the one is a low probability bet for obvious reasons. Usually major tops are a process and they need time to develop. For example one could argue that German DAX is currently forming a major market top. We’ll see if that will be the case. But there is no sign of a major market top in the US stock indices yet.
And DJIA closing at a new all time highs, surpassing this January’s high, is anything but bearish. Breadth indicators are also not telling a bearish story. And what if there is a bigger risk of a melt up, rather than an imminent crash?
I wouldn’t exclude this case and neither should you. Sure, stock market is in the later stages of a bull market in my opinion, but does this mean it should crash? If it does, I won’t be stubbornly holding to my holdings. And before we see any serious deterioration it’s hard to join the doom and gloom side. When that happens I will be more than happy to short it.
So, what is Dow Jones Industrial Average saying then? Let us take a look at a daily chart.
As said before, DJIA just surpassed its January’s high. And if it is above 26,400 we want to be long the index with a target of 28,600. This is 10% higher from the current levels. If the price gets below that I’d advise to be defensive short term.