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Crash of 2020

March 9, 2020 / / No Comments

What a historic times! After relentless selling and the fastest correction on record according to Deutsche Bank, we’re seeing some crazy after-weekend moves in the over-night session. S&P 500 index futures are limit down (meaning, after a quick -5% move trading has been halted until the US opens), bond prices are surging and that oil… man, crude oil was down -30% from Friday’s close in just a matter of minutes!

Brent oil’s move at the moment stands as the 2nd largest one day move ever. On Jan 17th, 1991 Brent closed down -34.8% in a day. Let’s see where it closes at today, but the next largest move is -13.5%, so today’s move will be either the largest or second largest on record. Here’s a chart of WTI oil.

I don’t know how the stock market will react once the US session starts. Will we see a bounce, or a continuation of selling is anyone’s guess at this point. However, I hope you took precautionary measures in February when I posted Bumpy road ahead and Bonds, buy Bonds. Hope you’re safe and were able to limit you losses.

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Why I keep being constructive on oil

September 4, 2018 / / 1 Comment

Summer is slowly but steadily nearing its end. It was a great opportunity for me to take a break and do some stuff I didn’t have time for during the year. I was still watching the markets, but trading much less frequently than usually. One has to keep in mind that the markets will always be here and so will the opportunities. When I was less experienced I thought that if I miss an opportunity it’s over, I will miss the train to the riches… so perhaps like the most of us I had the fear of missing out. Once you really understand that, sure we swing for the big win, the market keeps throwing opportunities at you, you get much more relaxed.

But what I wanted to say is that when you do that, when you step back a bit, you might get a fresh look or a new perspective on things. You open up to the new ideas. And this is the big win. Everyone needs to do it now and then.

Anyway, let me get to oil now. Since last summer I had been constructive on oil and energy prices in general. Read More

The year of commodities?

January 8, 2018 / / No Comments

Here it is, my first post in 2018. I won’t give you NY resolutions or something. Let me first give you a quick overview of my past posts to gain a perspective before we dive into today’s topic. I think this is relevant because some of these trends started in 2017 and they could pick up steam in 2018.

The theme that could be very big this year is a big rally in commodities in my opinion. I’ve been writing a lot about commodities and commodity related products/assets in the past. When oil was at $45 and everyone was screaming it’s going lower I was taking the other side. It’s above $60 now. When gold was at $1300 I was suggesting it could drop by $60-80 at which point it could be a great level to pick it up as a long-term hold. It did precisely that and is sitting at $1320 now. Not to mention bullish copper and some other ones. Even though the above calls went great not everything did. Cocoa (and other softs) showed some signs of life during the second half of ’17, but were very quickly brought back to reality; I wouldn’t call it a day just yet.

US dollar is very important to the whole commodities story. While I had second thoughts about my bearish thesis as I see some head winds at the moment the dollar continued its slide lower. If my assumption is correct and the dollar continues what is doing, this would be a great tell and an even bigger tail wind for commodities. Read More

WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?

October 29, 2017 / / 2 Comments

My holidays are over and it was nice to see that things that I’ve been writing about are mainly playing out as expected. One of them is also oil. To me it seems it can go a lot higher! There are so many bears because of an over rated shale potential or because so many people think that demand just can’t pick up. I disagree with their arguments, not only that, I take the opposite side! Also, there are bulls but who are not really bullish, rather neutral, as they think oil can’t go much higher.

I wrote a lot about my bullish thesis so many times in the last couple of months. If I focus only on the last two, in the first one I was writing about my $60 WTI price expectations and in the second I wrote an update on the 1st one. I really wouldn’t like to repeat myself, so you are very kindly invited to give them a read. Read More

Oil breaking higher through important trendlines

September 14, 2017 / / 2 Comments

There is more and more evidence that energies might rally in the end of this year and so many people could be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Not only retail community but also professionals are saying oil has to go down. We can see something similar in COT positioning as well. This reminds me of gold bugs, but in energy we have energy bears and their narratives. It’s fascinating!

I wrote a post about oil a month ago. I advise you to read it (see here) before you continue with this post to gain a perspective. Therefore I won’t go into everything again but rather expose the technical picture. Read More

Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so

August 20, 2017 / / 5 Comments

It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.

In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible.  Read More

USDCAD pointing to crude oil rally

June 10, 2017 / / 4 Comments

Had you asked me a few months ago what do I think where oil might go, being quite a vocal bear, I’d say that the only way is down. Even when WTI was breaking above 52.00 USD/bbl level and hedge funds have built a record long position, I was very pessimistic about that and as expected the move was short-lived. But recently I became less bearish. In this post let me present what I see right now.. Read More

Weekly overview 30.04.2017

April 30, 2017 / / 2 Comments

Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NDX, SX5E, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CL, RBS

It’s so hard to write something really exciting in the equity indices space right now. Sure, I think we can expect another move higher some time, but are we first on a course to fill those nasty gaps with some choppy action? There are few proofs which could back this thesis. Read More