My holidays are over and it was nice to see that things that I’ve been writing about are mainly playing out as expected. One of them is also oil. To me it seems it can go a lot higher! There are so many bears because of an over rated shale potential or because so many people think that demand just can’t pick up. I disagree with their arguments, not only that, I take the opposite side! Also, there are bulls but who are not really bullish, rather neutral, as they think oil can’t go much higher.
I wrote a lot about my bullish thesis so many times in the last couple of months. If I focus only on the last two, in the first one I was writing about my $60 WTI price expectations and in the second I wrote an update on the 1st one. I really wouldn’t like to repeat myself, so you are very kindly invited to give them a read. Continue reading “WTI crude oil to $59 and possibly to $68?”
There is more and more evidence that energies might rally in the end of this year and so many people could be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Not only retail community but also professionals are saying oil has to go down. We can see something similar in COT positioning as well. This reminds me of gold bugs, but in energy we have energy bears and their narratives. It’s fascinating!
I wrote a post about oil a month ago. I advise you to read it (see here) before you continue with this post to gain a perspective. Therefore I won’t go into everything again but rather expose the technical picture. Continue reading “Oil breaking higher through important trendlines”
It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.
In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible. Continue reading “Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so”
Had you asked me a few months ago what do I think where oil might go, being quite a vocal bear, I’d say that the only way is down. Even when WTI was breaking above 52.00 USD/bbl level and hedge funds have built a record long position, I was very pessimistic about that and as expected the move was short-lived. But recently I became less bearish. In this post let me present what I see right now.. Continue reading “USDCAD pointing to crude oil rally”
Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NDX, SX5E, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CL, RBS
It’s so hard to write something really exciting in the equity indices space right now. Sure, I think we can expect another move higher some time, but are we first on a course to fill those nasty gaps with some choppy action? There are few proofs which could back this thesis. Continue reading “Weekly overview 30.04.2017”